​The World According to Trump

Like all of you, I am feeling a bit whiplashed by the dizzying pace of unusual foreign and domestic policy developments issuing from our nation's capital.  Facebook is now saying that it is seeing some of the same kinds of attacks being perpetrated against our midterm elections as it saw during the 2016 election cycle.  

Following a NATO Summit where the President ruffled our allies’ feathers, he followed up with a two-man summit and photo op between himself and Putin in Helsinki.  Missing in all this is a rational foreign policy coordinated through the resources of our Federal Government.  The follow-up Putin visit to Washington that was announced for this Autumn now seems to have sunk without trace, after a day of inarticulate obfuscation by the President.   

More Trump missteps ...  Now that he has dumped all over the Iran agreement, he is evidently ready to meet with Iran’s President at any time.  Meanwhile, reports are emerging that North Korea could be building new missiles.   And the President says he is ready to shut down the government over border security though Messrs McConnell and Ryan say they are not interested in a shutdown. I suppose it would be churlish at this point to remind you the President blithely claimed during the campaign that Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

Rudy Holds Forth

Trump’s representative Rudy Giuliani gyrates through the airwaves daily with a song and dance about the Mueller investigation, spinning this way and that ... there was no collusion, but even if there were, it wouldn’t have been a crime ... there may have been another meeting before the Trump Tower meeting or not, but if there were, the President definitely didn’t attend it ... nothing will happen in the Manafort trial that can hurt the President ... nothing lawyer Cohen knows could harm the President.  And so on and so on ...  

All of this begs the question that if the President is such a great judge of character and has so many great people around him, why is this cast of characters dominating public discourse in such a unique way?  

Further Confusion

And we are watching as Trump’s latest nominee for the Supreme Court confirmation, Judge Kavanaugh, is set to undergo his confirmation hearing facing very divided public opinion, with a lower public opinion approval levels than Harriet Meirs.  After countries like Mexico, Canada, and China implemented retaliatory tariffs, the Administration is offering up a $12 billion agricultural aid package.  But, the dairy industry alone has lost $1.8 billion in the last several weeks; the U.S. has the largest cheese surplus in our history; dairy farmers will likely face volatile prices; and there is no guarantee that lost markets abroad can be regained.  California Attorney General Becerra’s office has now filed 38 legal actions (the number was only 24 last December) against federal agencies or opposing new administration policies.  

What's Our Answer?

We have all heard that old Will Rogers saw, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.”  Humor has its place, but my thoughts are being drawn more to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, who noted that “a majority is always better than the best repartee.”  The majority we need to be focused on is attaining a majority in the House, for which we need 24 additional Democratic seats.   The odds that we will take the House appear to have improved over the past month. On Tuesday, the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball changed its ratings in 17 House districts…all in favor of Democrats.  The Democratic lead in the generic ballot of RealClearPolitics polling average has shifted from 3.2 percentage points to 7.1 points.  

Democrats have been outraising Republicans in a number of competitive districts.  In fact, for the second quarter this year, in House races, Democrats outraised Republicans. Democrats outraised 56 Republican incumbents while only three Republicans outraised Democratic incumbents, $146 million to $102 mil (Politico).  But, as we all know, the only poll that counts is the voting that takes place in our General Election on November 6, so let’s stay organized and focused. 

On August 2, the day of our next Club meeting, we will be 96 days away from the election. For those of you who want to make an active contribution to Democratic efforts the time is nigh ... voter registration, canvassing, phoning, helping with mailing, donating to campaigns.  And remember that, 52 percent of voters in Ventura are vote-by-mail (VBM). Those ballots will be arriving at homes around the first of October, so the opportunity to influence those voters falls away as election day approaches.  

Local Elections

For those of us in the Democratic Club of Camarillo, who are interested in helping to flip a House seat, the nearest available opportunity is CA-25, where Katie Hill is running against Republican incumbent Steve Knight.   Ryan Valencia, the First Vice Chair of the Ventura County Democratic Central Committee will be attending our Thursday meeting to update us on that campaign and tell us how we can help.  More below ...

Hollywood is Calling!

Are any of you interested in being an extra in a Democratic PAC film being produced in Santa Paula? Producer Tye Alexander is looking for about 100 enthusiastic extras to be in Santa Paula on Sunday, August 5th. He may also be looking for a few cameo speakers.  If you are interested, contact Tye at (914) 441-8311 or email him at theiririshman@prideofgypsies.com.  Also upcoming is the Ventura County Fair, where our club will be staffing the booth on Wednesday, August 8th.   We are still looking for volunteers, so please call me at (805) 689-8108) if you are available any time from 10 am to 10 pm.

Our Club Meeting

We have a full agenda for our Club meeting.  As noted above, Ryan Valencia will speak about Katie Hill’s CA-25 congressional campaign; he will also address Christy Smith’s California Assembly campaign.  In addition, CSUCI Adjunct Professor of Political Science Tim Allison will speak about the propositions that are going to be on the ballot in November.  

​I look forward to seeing you there,

The Demise of Scott Pruitt

​Scott Pruitt, the EPA Administrator we have all reviled for his unethical conduct and for rolling back environmental protections, has finally resigned.  We know someone with his kind of ethical lapses would not have lasted so long in a Democratic administration (and in fairness, in most Republican administrations as well).  Of course, he may be replaced by someone equally bad for the environment, but it is hard to imagine any replacement being so lacking in personal probity.

Big Trouble at the Supreme Court

The focus at the Federal level has now shifted to the Supreme Court, where the news that Justice Kennedy (a swing vote in favor of abortion rights) is stepping down, gave Donald Trump a second High Court pick.  He has nominated Brett Kavanaugh, Yale-trained and tagged as an originalist judge in the mold of Anton Scalia, i.e.  one who looks to original meaning in the Constitution.  Kavanaugh has an impeccable conservative record including working with Independent Prosecutor Kenneth Starr during the Bill Clinton witch hunt.   

With Republican control of the Senate hanging by a narrow margin, a lot of attention is falling on two Republican Senators who support Roe v. Wade, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.  However, both Senators voted to confirm Judge Cavanaugh to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals back in 2006.  Many prominent Democratic Senators, including both California Senators, have already lined up in opposition, and we can expect a heated confirmation process.  We saw that the Democratic opposition was unable to block Justice Gorsuch’s appointment, and three Democrats voted in favor of his appointment.  But all will recognize that the appointment of a second conservative pick is likely to result in a rightward shift of the court for many years. That is different than Justice Gorsuch simply replacing Justice Scalia and may rachet up the intensity of the confirmation hearing. 

Trump's Trade Policy ... or Lack Thereof

Administration trade policy is continuing to confuse and cause unintended consequences.  Steel tariffs caused Mid-Continent Nail, the largest U.S. producer of nails, to lay off workers, and consider closing or moving to Mexico after its orders dropped 50% when the company tried to pass on its higher steel costs.   

Harley-Davidson invested in India back in 2011 to be able to break into that country's tariff-protected market.  It is now opening a plant in Thailand to supply southeast Asia as well as its growing China market.  Forty percent of Harley’s sales are international, and the European retaliatory tariffs of 31% would raise the price of its motorcycles by $2,200 per bike, so it plans to shift production abroad over the coming months to avoid $90-100 million per year in European tariffs.  

You will remember that solar panels became the subject of tariffs last winter.  Lest you think that analysis of this kind of policy is simple, China’s largest producer of solar panels, Jinko has not used Chinese-produced solar cells in the U.S. market for some time.  It uses Malaysian cells, which are taxed at 30%, rather than cells from China which would be taxed at a cumulative 85% tariff.  Jinko is opening a plant in Florida using the Malaysian cells to meet U.S. market needs.  

The US Chamber of Commerce has estimated that 2.6 million jobs are at risk because of Administration trade policies including the impact of ending NAFTA.  According to Moody’s Analytics, 700,000 jobs could be lost over the next year as a result of tariffs already proposed. 

The Latest on Immigration

Immigration has moved to center stage over the last month, with the dismal spectacle of our government acting to separate children from their parents, and the President and his Administration blithely positing that due process is not needed for unauthorized immigrants despite more than a century of Supreme Court rulings. Sorry Mr. President,  “Aliens, even aliens whose presence in this country is unlawful, have long been recognized as ‘persons’ guaranteed due process of law by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments,” said the Court in 1982.  

In the wrangling over California’s stance on immigration, Eastern District Court of California Judge John Mendez, who was appointed by George W. Bush, upheld SB 54’s constitutionality against Attorney General Sessions’ and the DOJ’s first round of challenge, which means that California police and sheriffs will be able to continue limiting cooperation with immigration enforcement.  In handing down his verdict, Judge Mendez joined a growing chorus of Americans in urging Congress to find a long-term solution to federal immigration policy, “to set aside partisan and polarizing politics dominating the current immigration debate and work in a cooperative and bipartisan fashion toward drafting and passing legislation that addresses this critical political issue.”  “Our Nation deserves it”…”Our Constitution demands it,” he wrote.

The Trump immigration election agenda is certain to be an issue in the November elections in California. According to a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted in May (even before the current focus on immigration), 19% of the California’s likely voters identified immigration as a top concern vs 15% who mentioned jobs.  A year ago, jobs topped the polls.   This could be an important factor in races such as the 10th District (R Jeff Denham) or our nearby 25th District (R Steve Knight) where the issue is likely to boost Democratic turnout, and where Latinos make up around 25% of voters. 

Closer to Home

Locally, candidates are beginning to make the rounds, and the filing period for non-partisan races in our district will be underway from July 16 – August 12.  The Democratic Club of Ventura has organized what looks to be a great “Keep It Blue” brunch on Sunday, July 22, at the Pierpont Inn, It will be emceed by California Democratic Party Chair Eric Bauman, and feature, among others, representatives Julia Brownley and Salud Carbajal, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kevin de Leon.  

We will be staffing our booth at the Camarillo Fiesta July 17 - 18, and at Ventura County Fair, on August 8.  We need volunteers, so please sign up with Jim Paulson for the Fiesta and contact me if you are willing to take a stint at the County Fair on August 8.
​
Our meeting this month will be on Thursday, July 12.  Our featured speaker will be CSU Channel Islands (Osher Lifelong Learning Institute) lecturer B J Fan, who will be speaking about renewable energy and environmental policy in China, and may make a few interesting observations about American policy by way of contrast.  I look forward to seeing you there.

Primary Election

​I hope all of you have exercised your most precious right to vote in this week’s California primary.  I know we will all now be focusing time and energy analyzing the results and thinking about how to proceed for November. 

Over 19 million Californians are registered to vote, which is more than three-quarters of our eligible voters.   When reporting these statistics, Secretary of State Alex Padilla cites automatic registration through the DMV as well as a new mobile friendly voter registration website and updated paper registration forms. Democrats are still the largest bloc of voters at 44 percent.  I was interested to read that Republicans at 25.1 percent of registered voters now trail those who show no party preference at 25.5 percent.  Unfortunately, two-thirds of potential voters typically do not cast ballots in non-Presidential elections, and a higher percentage of Republicans vote than Democrats.  

We have all seen a lot of commentary on last night’s results. A couple of things stood out to me. I agree with the Los Angeles Times that the results of the governor’s race indicate that the contest between Gavin Newsom and John Cox, who was backed by Trump, will inevitably draw focus to national themes.  The third finisher, Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, quickly endorsed Newsom Tuesday night, so in our Democratic dominated state, most pundits are suggesting Newsom has an easy path to victory.  Nevertheless, with a traditional donkey-elephant race at the top of the ticket, Republicans will remain motivated to turn out and vote for down-ballot candidates. 

We will continue to argue about the merits and demerits of our unique “jungle primary” system where the first two candidates in the primary proceed to the November general election.  Bearing in mind that the path to taking over control of the House this fall leads through California, Democrats have been focusing on seven races in districts where Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that had Republican Congressional incumbents.  There had been concern that the proliferation of enthusiastic Democratic candidates (leading, for example, to 16 candidates on the ballot in the 49th Congressional district) motivated by anti-Trump sentiment would split Democratic votes in a number of key congressional races, leaving only Republican candidates competing in the fall. This appears not to have happened. It looks as though a Democratic candidate has placed second in all seven of the most competitive Congressional races, giving us opportunities for gain in November.  The national Democrats spent over $7 million to support candidates in the 48th, 49th, and 39th districts (held by Republicans Rohrabacher, Issa, and Royce, respectively) in Orange County, to boost Democratic candidates they believed had a chance to move forward to the general election.  In our nearby 25th district, incumbent Republican Steve Knight took first place, and among several Democratic candidates, Katie Hill narrowly edged out Brian Caforio for the right to compete in November. 

We lost the Democratic supermajority in the California state legislature with the recall vote of Democratic State Senator Josh Newman in the 29th district, over his vote for Senate Bill 1, which increased the gas tax and vehicle fees to pay for road and bridge repairs and mass transit improvements.  Overall, 81 legislators voted for the measure, but Republicans chose to target Newman’s district because he had won narrowly in 2016 (by 2,500 votes out of 320,000 over former Republican Assemblymember Ling Ling Chang), in a district that had previously been represented by termed-out Republican Senator Bob Huff and was long seen as a Republican bastion.  Successful recalls are rare in California; before this primary, just five successful recalls have occurred since 1913.  However, with a viable Republican candidate in the wings, money was spent to collect signatures and put the recall on the ballot.   According to a recent Dornsife Los Angeles Times poll, 51% of California voters want to repeal the gas tax, but the numbers are even higher in Orange and San Diego counties at 64%, so the stratagem of using a recall worked in circumstances where public opinion/voter anger over a single issue could be tapped.  The state Republican party invested more than $1.2 million into the recall election, including more than $490,000 in support of Chang.  I think we should be very wary about recalls, pushed by narrow, well-funded interest groups, gaining currency in our political system.

Before we leave elections, I want to thank all of you who served as volunteer election staff under Marianne Slaughter and Rick Gardner’s Adopt-a-Poll leadership on Tuesday. By volunteering this service, we earn a little bit of income for our club, but this is also a vital contribution to our community and the fabric of our democracy!

Success on SB 54 at City Hall
​
I want to thank those of you who showed up in the recent Camarillo City Council meetings, which turned back a movement to get our city to sign on to joining a legal challenge to SB 54, aka, the California Values Act.  According to the Camarillo Acorn, 59 speakers supported SB 54 or urged the city to do nothing, while 36 speakers demanded action at the third meeting on May 23 when the issue was on the City Council agenda.  It appeared  that quite a few of those who supported opposing SB 54 came from outside of Camarillo, pushing a divisive, Trumpist immigration agenda.  This episode is just one more example, as if one were needed, of how important it is to keep informed and show up to participate in our democratic institutions.  Our Council recognized the legal battle on immigration enforcement between the state and federal governments was being decided in the courts and outside the purview of the city council, and voted unanimously not to take a position for or against SB 54.  

Our Club Meeting

This month’s meeting on Thursday, June 7, will feature Santa Barbara First District Supervisor Das Williams as our invited speaker.  As you will remember in his past life in the State Assembly, he represented a number of Ventura County residents including some in Camarillo.  Also, Kimberly Rivers of CFROG (Citizens for Responsible Oil and Gas) will update us on efforts to oppose plans to greatly increase oil drilling near Sturgis Road.    I look forward to seeing you there.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

​Surfing on the Blue Wave

Another month and more indications of a possible blue wave in the House.  This last month, Speaker Paul Ryan announced he would not run again, shortly followed by Dennis Ross of Florida and Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania ... adding to the roster of Republicans members of Congress who have announced they are not planning to run this fall.  This makes 46 Republicans in the House who have announced they are retiring or have resigned since January 2017, including ten Republican Committee Chairs.  

In heavily Republican Arizona, a special Congressional election was held in a district encompassing the suburbs of Phoenix that is typically 13 points more Republican than the national average.  No Democrat in this century has reached 40% of the vote in this district.  But this time, a modestly financed first-time Democratic candidate, Doctor Tiperneni Hiral, lost to Republican State Senator Debbie Lesko in a tight race  53% to 47%; on the heels of her excellent showing, Dr. Hilal has announced she plans to run again in November.  

The next day in New York, Democrats won an Assembly seat that had been represented by Republicans since 1978 and also took two open New York Senate seats.  Here in our backyard, more than half of California’s 14 incumbents raised less than their Democratic opponents in the last quarter of 2017, and Republican Congressmen McClintock, Rohrabacher, and Knight were outraised by one of their Democratic challengers in the first quarter of 2018.

The Latest in Trumpworld

The chaos continued to swirl around Trumpworld.  The airwaves have been dominated by former FBI head James Comey’s book interviews ... and legal wrangling over the President’s relationship with Stormy Daniels.  Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen had his office and home searched and various documents seized.  While Trump got his Secretary of State confirmed, his under-vetted nominee for the Department of Veteran's Affairs went down in flames.  Trump’s head of the Environmental Protection Agency has faced a very public drubbing for his ethics lapses.

Meanwhile, Republicans on the Congressional Intelligence Committee have shown a lack of interest in pursuing leads that might damage the President; they issued a final Republican report exonerating the President.  The following day, in an interview with Richard Engel, Russian lawyer Velenitskaya of Trump Tower fame, acknowledged that she was an informant for the Russian Crown Prosecutor, confirming a closer relationship to Russian officialdom than previously understood.  

The Sinclair Broadcast Group and the Federal Communications Commission

The President’s continuous and virtually uncritical loop with Fox News and some other outlets is characteristic of the Trump presidency.   During the 2016 election, the Trump campaign also gave regular access to the Sinclair Broadcast Group, which broadcast Trump interviews without commentary.   Sinclair has been criticized by some for its “must run” political commentary and pre-packaged news segments.  

The Sinclair Broadcast Group, already the largest U.S. broadcaster with 191 stations, is now waiting approval to merge with Tribune Media, which would give the new company the ability to reach 72% of homes across the U.S., surpassing the Congressionally mandated maximum reach of 39%.  This matter is being considered by the Federal Communications Commission and the Justice Department.   

Last April, Chairman Ajit Pai’s FCC reinstated a rule allowing UHF stations to be counted as having less reach than VHF channels to permit broadcasters more flexible growth options. Currently this rule change is subject to a D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals challenge, and 22 Democratic Senators would like the FCC to wait for the Court of Appeals to rule before proceeding.  Attorneys General in four states have opposed the merger saying Sinclair would have too much national power and could stifle points of view in local markets.

This is the same FCC, led by Ajit Pai, which reversed the Obama-era regulations on net neutrality for the Internet last December. In this instance, however, a number of states are already fighting back. Washington and Oregon have already enacted net neutrality laws, and Governors in five states – Hawaii, New Jersey, New York, Montana, and Vermont - have signed executive orders restoring the principle, and efforts are underway in California.  Like EPA Administrator Pruitt, Ajit Pai appears less interested in rules that were intended to protect the consumer, and more interested in creating an environment favorable to the communications industry.

Closer to Home ...

Today, our neighbors went to the polls in Oxnard to vote in a recall election set to cost $500,000. Ironically, the proximate cause of the recall was a utility rate hike to pay for necessary improvements in water treatment.  When all is said and done, Oxnard voters will still be heading to the polls again in November for City Council Elections, voting for candidates running for the first time in districts instead of citywide.  I am not the first to note that this recall election was a big expense for an election whose results will only apply for six more months until the November election, pushed on Oxnard by people who opposed legislators taking a vote to pay for a wastewater treatment rate increase.  

In a triumph for the Club and our friends at CFROG (Citizens for Responsible Oil and Gas), we were able to blunt an attempt by Kelly Long and Peter Foy of the Ventura County Board of Supervisors to exclude the public's right to appeal zoning clearances based on old land-use entitlements.  This would have expedited a zoning clearance to install 79 new oil drilling wells on county land adjoining Camarillo Airport.  The original permit for this project was granted in 1955 ... before the incorporation of Camarillo ... before the development of new extraction technologies ... and before environmental reviews.  Thanks to Rick Gardner and all of you for contacting the supervisors by email and phone to register your concerns.  But the issue is coming up again on the Supervisor's agenda on June 5th, election day.  Let’s remain vigilant.

I hope all of you will be joining us for our Pizza Fundraiser in support of our Scholarship Program this Thursday, May 3rd.  Our featured speaker will be Senator Hannah-Beth Jackson, aka “HBJ” to those of us who heard Kevin de Leon speak at the “Spring Fling.”  I hope to see you there.

​News from the Swamp

During a week when EPA Administrator Pruitt’s condo rental deal in DC is raising eyebrows, the swamp in Washington appears live and well.   David Cay Johnston provides an interesting timeline of activities in his article in New York Magazine entitled “501 Days in Swampland.”  Johnston says it is clear that "... Trump isn’t draining the swamp – he’s monetizing it.”  

As the Meuller investigation continues, the first sentence was handed down this week to Dutch lawyer Alex Van der Zwaag ... for lying to investigators.  Meanwhile legal wrangling over the Stormy Daniels matter has appeared regularly in the news.  Is it too much for Americans to expect that the decorum of the Presidency and the President’s Administration is a necessary quality of the office and that conduct of our leader should set a high example for our citizenry including our children?

Two members of large and important cabinet agencies exited the scene over the last month with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Veterans Affairs getting the sack, apparently not even receiving the courtesy of being told by the President.  We also saw the departure of Communications Director Hope Hicks, top Economic Advisor Gary Cohn, and National Security Advisor (the second) H.R.MacMaster.  This kind of turnover can’t help but create uncertainty and disruption to the cabinet agencies and offices that are experiencing the leadership change.

Improving Prospects for Democrats

All of this appears to be having an effect on the electorate.  With eight months to go before the November elections, Democrat Conor Lamb overcame a 2016 twenty-point Trump advantage in his Pennsylvania electoral district to be elected to Congress over his Republican rival, despite active Trump Administration campaigning and steel tariff policy decisions.  Pennsylvania Republican Congressman Ryan Costello announced that he would join more than 40 other Congressional Republicans in not seeking re-election in November.  (It might be added that 16 Democrats have also chosen not to run.)   

Since World War II, the party controlling the White House has on average lost 26 House seats in midterm elections.  The average has been 33 seats when the President’s job approval rating has been below 50%.  This bodes well for the Democrat’s chances of winning the 24 seats in November needed to take back control of the House.   Trump’s support among women voters has been eroding, with a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll showing support among women fell this month to 35 percent (being dubbed the “Stormy effect”).   it is also worth noting that there are twice as many women running for Congress this year as in 2016.

Congressional Races in California

Part of the road for control of the House obviously runs through California.  At the California Democratic Convention in San Diego, delegates voted to endorse eight Democratic candidates in key Congressional races in our state:  Jessica Morse (CA-24, running against Republican Tom McCintock), Marge Doyle (CA-8, running against Republican Paul Cook), Andrew Janz (CA-22, running against Republican Devin Nunes), Tatiana Matta (CA-23, running against Kevin McCarthy), Julia Peacock (CA-42, running against Republican Ken Calvert), Dave Min (CA-45, running against Republican Mimi Walters), Hans Keirstead (CA-48, running against Republican Dana Rohrabacher), and Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50, running against Republican Duncan Hunter Jr.).  And locally, we will be following efforts to turn neighboring CA-25 (currently held by Republican Steve Knight), where there are still several Democratic contenders competing to move forward in the June 5 primary.

Local Happenings

Here at home, the Ventura County Democratic Central Committee (VCDCC) voted at our last meeting to endorse Bernardo Perez for District 4 Supervisor, Caleb Donner for Ventura County Superior Court Judge (Office 4), and Michael Magasinn for Ventura County Superior Court Judge (Office 6).   Hopefully, many of you are thinking about purchasing tickets for the Ventura County Democratic Party’s Spring Fling, with Betty Yee as the featured speaker on April 14 at Los Robles Greens in Thousand Oaks.  I imagine there will be an opportunity to meet a number of other state and local candidates at the event.  Proceeds support our Party’s mission of turning Ventura County Blue.  Also, please remember to mark your calendar for our May 3 Scholarship Pizza Fundraiser and purchase tickets early so we know how much pizza to order!  Sen Hannah-Beth Jackson has agreed to speak to our Club that evening.
​
Our featured speaker for our April Club meeting will be Oxnard Councilwoman Carmen Ramirez, speaking about the new disticts for city council elections in Oxnard, the recall, and other local issues.  In passing, I should mention that the VCDCC did endorse voting “No” on the Oxnard recall.  Judicial candidate Caleb Donner will also introduce himself as a candidate.  I look forward to seeing you all on Thursday. 

​More Turmoil in the White House

We have all witnessed astounding and historic churn in the chaotic Trump White House.  Hope Hicks, close Trump confidante and his fourth Communications Director, handed in her resignation, only one day after she had been grilled by the House Intelligence Committee for eight hours.  At one point during the testimony after being asked a question, she consulted her lawyer and then answered that she had on occasion told "white lies," but had never lied about substantive issues or anything concerning the Russian investigation.  

Ms. Hicks has been romantically linked to former White House Deputy Counselor Rob Porter who resigned in the midst of a scandal involving abuse against his previous spouses that blocked his ability to get a full security clearance.  In fact, in Trump’s White House, over 100 staffers been working under interim security clearances over a year into the administration, before the scandal shined a spotlight on the situation forcing Chief of Staff John Kelly to deal with it.  Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner has now had his security clearance downgraded to the point where it will likely make it hard for him to handle the high-profile foreign policy portfolios that he has been assigned.  Meanwhile reports are emerging that Kushner companies received large loans over the past year.    And the Meuller probe continues to march along.

Another Tragic Shooting

The country continues to react to the shootings at Marjorie Stoneham Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida two weeks ago.  Students from the school have been campaigning for action in Florida, Washington, and around the nation and it appears to be moving the needle. 

In a free-wheeling, televised discussion with Democratic and Republican lawmakers on possible gun-legislation, President Trump claimed he would deal with bump stocks presumably by executive order.  However, he encouraged the Congress to come up with a bill on background checks, and keeping guns out of the hands of people with mental health problems.  To the consternation of many, Trump continued to propose armed guards inside schools.  He stated support for concealed carry but pushed back on Republican Whip Steve Scalise’s suggestion that concealed carry between states be added to the bill, because that would scuttle chances for the getting the other progress through Congress.  Time will tell how serious he is about supporting this initiative.

If nothing else, the corporate world is beginning to believe that sensible restraint is good business.  On the same day as the televised White House meeting, Walmart announced it would stop selling guns and ammunition those under 21.  Dick’s Sporting Goods will also stop selling guns to buyers under 21 and anything with a high capacity magazine. 

The Latest on the Dreamers

The Supreme Court decided on February 26 to reject the administration’s request for immediate review of the case filed by DACA recipients and institutions ... including the University of California in California District Court where the Judge had ruled against the administration.  A New York Federal Judge issued a similar ruling.  This means it is unlikely that the case will continue through the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals and likely would not reach the Supreme Court at least until the fall, meaning that deportation proceedings for 690,000 DACA recipients will be unable to start on March 5 as the President’s DACA action had originally ordered.

Prospects for Taking Back the House

Polls are continuing to show that Democrats have a good shot at taking back the House in 2018, with Democrats now holding a 16-point lead on a generic congressional ballot according to a CNN poll taken last month. An early test of strength in 2018 is coming up March 13 to fill the Pennsylvania 18th district seat, open after the resignation of Republican Tim Murphy following a scandal.  Republican candidate Rick Saccone is facing off against Democratic Conor Lamb in a district Trump carried by 20 points.  Today the race is within 3 points.

California Democratic Convention

The California Democratic Convention was held in San Diego last weekend and turned out to be a lively affair, filled with opportunities to hear candidates for state and national offices.  In an attempt to woo delegates, the candidates spoke in the main hall, at the caucuses, at hosted events, and wherever else they could to get across their message. On Saturday afternoon, the delegates voted with a mandatory 60% threshold to endorse candidates.  

It turned out that too many candidates were running against each other, splitting the vote.  The result was no endorsement for the US Senate seat, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.  Incumbent US Senator Diane Feinstein was outpolled by California Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon 37% to 54%.  In the Governor’s race, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom received 39% of the votes, followed by 30% for Treasurer John Chiang, 20% for former Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, and a dismal 9% for former Los Angeles Major Antonio Villagarosa.  Incumbent State Controller Betty Yee, Secretary of State Alex Padilla, as well as Board of Equalization Chairman Ma for Treasurer, and ASM Tony Thurman for State Superintendent of Public Instruction were successful in the endorsement race.

Club Events

Please do not forget that our spring Ready-to-Run fundraiser will be held on March 10th at the Studio Channel Islands, 2222 Ventura Boulevard, Camarillo, at 3 - 6 pm.  I hope you will all purchase tickets to meet and hear from candidates, as well as support our Club.  I also want to mention that we will be holding our May Pizza fundraiser for our scholarship fund on Thursday, May 3rd.

Our speaker tonight is CFROG (Citizens for Responsible Oil and Gas) Executive Director Kimberly Rivers.  She will be updating us on developments in Ventura County.  I look forward to seeing you all there.

The State of the Union Speech

​The State of the Union speech punctuated the end of the Trump Administration’s first year.  The President called for unity, but pushed a Republican agenda which Republicans predictably cheered, while leaving Democrats in the chamber looking distinctly unenthusiastic.  He unsurprisingly touted economic and job growth (trends which were well underway during the Obama Administration), the Republican tax cut claiming that members of the middle class would be better off, and the historical highs of the stock market which has gained $8 trillion in value during the last year.   Yet we know that 84% of stocks are owned by 10% of the population, inequality is growing in U.S. society, and that the overwhelming majority of the benefits of the new tax bill go to the top one percent and corporations.  The tax overhaul will drive up the deficit by $1.7 trillion, and will raise taxes on many middle class families by the end of the decade.  Moreover, those families whose healthcare costs are increasing will be additionally squeezed.  When it came to immigration reform, the President talked of a path to citizenship for Dreamers over a 12-year period, while none-too-subtly linking immigrants to gangs like MS-13 and crime.  

Congressman Joe Kennedy III was eloquent and animated in giving the Democratic response.  He spoke to unity, inclusion, diversity and the Democratic “better deal” agenda of good paying jobs, paid family leave, and affordable medical care.  He spoke at a vocational technical high school before a live audience in Fall River, Massachusetts, a former mill town setting designed to show Democrats in touch with real people.

Continuing Chaos in Washington

In the lead-up to the State of the Union speech, we have been through another chaotic month in Washington entwined in shut-down politics.  Notwithstanding that the Republicans control both houses of Congress and the executive branch, they have been unable to manage to run a budget process smoothly.  With 700,000 dreamers and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) for 9 million children hanging in the balance, on January 19, the Administration and the Congress found its way through the third continuing resolution/shutdown crisis since December 8th.  It had appeared a Senate deal on DACA had been struck that the President hinted he would support, but subsequently backed away from in a cloud of expletive-deleted words which gratuitously denigrated a number of countries from which immigrants come.  Democrats voted to join the Republicans in reopening government and Congress passed a fourth continuing resolution until February 8, and concurrently agreed to six years of authorization for CHIP.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed to a clean vote on DACA, but $31 billion in tax cuts related to the Affordable Care Act were also part of the deal.  But this only achieved three more weeks of continuing resolution funding ... so on February 8, we could see the continuing resolution/shutdown playout again. 
 
In the background the Mueller probe continued to loom throughout the month.  FBI Deputy Director McCabe left office precipitously, and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Nunes (CA-25) has once again thrown the Committee into bipartisan divide by moving to release a confidential memo drafted by Republican staff about FBI surveillance practices over the “grave concerns” of the FBI and all Democrats on the Committee.

Upcoming Elections Looking Good for Democrats

We Democrats will be working hard around the country to win the 24 seats needed to gain control of the House, and recent polls indicate that goal could be in reach.  Eight GOP House Committee Chairs, and a total of 23 House Republicans have now announced they will not run again.  Close to home, two of the most endangered Republicans in the California Congressional delegation have announced they will not run again.  Thirteen-term Orange County representative Ed Royce and nine-term representative Darryl Issa have both decided against running in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. 

Upcoming State and County Events

We are all looking forward to the California Democratic Party Convention being held on February 23-25 in San Diego, as an opportunity to meet with our Democratic colleagues across the state, exchange ideas, and be inspired by our leaders as we gear up for the 2018 election.  The Ventura County Democratic Party Central Committee will be opening an office in the UCFW Orchid Building (where we have our DCC meetings), and I know they will welcome volunteers from our club to help staff that office.

Club Events including our Ready-to-Run Fundraiser

Our club is looking forward to holding our Ready-to-Run fundraising event on March 10 at the Channel Islands Art Studio from 1-5 pm.  I hope we will get a good group of local and statewide candidates to attend, and that many of you will also be able to support the event and attend.
I look forward to seeing you all this coming Thursday, when we will hear from Dr. Yongping Chen, PhD, Lac, and Dr. Kristofer Young, DC, about the role that Chinese medicine and functional medicine can play in the U.S. medical system. 

​Happy New Year!   Many of us look forward to 2018 as a year of opportunity after last year’s annus horribilis.   

The 2018 Congressional Elections

This will be the first chance to bring the House under Democratic control after the 2016 election and put the brakes on the stream of legislation coming from the Trump Administration, which seems bound and determined to govern and legislate for the benefit of a very small, wealthy minority of Americans.  It will only take 24 more Democratic seats to achieve this, and some current polling suggests that we Democrats could win 40 seats if the election were held today.  Mid-term elections are always hard for the party in power, and If we can win a Senate seat in Alabama, we should have confidence that we can do very well indeed. The election of Doug Jones brings the balance in the Senate to 49-51; however, of the 34 seats in the Senate up for election, Democrats have to defend 26 seats, including several with seats in districts that Trump won.

The road to winning 24 more Democratic seats in the House also runs through California.  We have not forgotten that all 14 GOP members of Congress voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and 12 representatives voted for the Republican tax bill, which raises taxes on the poor and middle classes, while providing numerous tax breaks for the very wealthy.  The California Democratic Party believes that Jeff Denham (CA-10), Dana Rohrbacher (CA-49), and Darrell Issa (CA-48) are vulnerable and are the CDP’s top targets.

A Bill of Particulars on the Trump Administration

I hardly need remind Democratic readers of the long and unpleasant bill of particulars from the Trump Administration’s first year in office.  Starting with Presidential demeanor and tweeting that is not the kind of example that I, for one, want our elementary school civics students to see, and who rarely displays the gravitas that we have come to expect over our history.  A President who has a very casual relationship with facts, truth, and science -- who publicly denigrates the media, gold star parents, members of his cabinet, and hard-working civil servants.  A President who is making us one of only two countries that is not willing to work with the rest of the world to tackle climate change.  A President who divides our people, vilifies immigrants, is not shy about wading into racial and ethnic controversy … who has left 800,000 DACA recipients under threat of deportation, and one-third of Puerto Rico without electricity four months after Hurricane Maria.  A President who appears to have good relations with authoritarians, but leaves our oldest and most reliable democratic allies unsure of our intentions.  And a Mueller probe which has already shown by guilty pleas and indictments that some of the President’s closest campaign advisors were swimming happily in the Swamp.  A President who has thumbed his nose at Presidential behavioral norms such as releasing tax forms.  The list goes on for a President that was elected by less than 50 % of the voters ... and who governs and legislates on behalf of a much smaller percentage of wealthier Americans.

State and Local Events

This year’s California Democratic Convention, is just around the corner on February 23-25, and will be attended by a number of our Club members.  It promises to be a lively and inspiring Convention as we prepare for this year’s elections.

In our county this coming Friday, January 5, Supervisor John Zaragoza will be holding a meeting at the Ventura County Board of Supervisors at 10:00 am to discuss setting up a Ventura County Sheriff Civilian Oversight Committee.  Those interested in community choice energy will want to follow the Camarillo City Council’s agenda this month, because the possibility of joining with Los Angeles Community Choice Energy (LACCE) will be on the agenda this month.

Goings-On in the Club

Meanwhile, with respect to our own Club, I am very pleased to let you know that Pat Ehret has agreed to join our E-Board as our Corresponding Secretary.  She eventually agreed to put her name forward during our December Installation Luncheon, and a unanimous group of attendees at the luncheon voted her in.  So, we have a full E-Board going into 2018.  Those who are on the Region 10 Endorsement Committee should watch their email since there will be a meeting on January 13 and January 27. 

As many of you know, because of the conflict with the January 20 Women’s March, we have rescheduled our Ready to Run fundraiser to March 10th.  Hopefully, many of you will be able to purchase tickets and attend at the lovely Channel Islands Art Studio in Camarillo, since this is a key opportunity for our Club to build up its 2018 election activity funds.  I am confident that Thom Tibor, Cathy Osgood, Maggie Curley, and their event committee colleagues will organize an exciting event!

I look forward to seeing you this coming Thursday, and hearing from our invited speaker Bob Weiss and the Ventura County Brady Committee. 

Mueller and Draining the Swamp

Another month, and another month’s worth of eye-catching news.  The Mueller investigation has handed down its first indictments ... to former Trump Campaign Chair Paul Manafort and his associate Rick Gates, and to foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos, who has already entered a guilty plea.  To all appearances, it looks like the Mueller investigation will be part of the Washington scene for some time. 

As for draining the swamp, it seems like careful vetting for registration as a foreign agent was lacking in instances like Manafort and Flynn.  We don’t yet know about the process responsible, but it does not seem to be a drained swamp that enabled a two-person company from North Dakota to snag a three hundred million-dollar contract (which is being cancelled) to help restore Puerto Rico’s power after Hurricane Maria.  This week, several tech giants are testifying before Congress about the extent of Russian attempts to influence American public opinion through the use of social media to which 126 million Americans may have been exposed to on Facebook alone before the 2016 election.

Tax "Reform"

Meanwhile, the Republicans are looking to “tax reform” as the next item on their agenda, and last chance to produce significant legislation before the end of the year.  However, despite the President and the GOP’s claims, public opinion has not been convinced that this “tax reform” will help the middle class,  rather than benefiting corporations and the wealthy.  It will be interesting to see how the 14 California House Republicans will vote on a plan that currently threatens the state and local tax (SALT) deductions worth $112.5 billion that six million Californians claimed in 2015.

The California Political Scene

According to the Los Angeles Times, in California there are already 80 (58 are Democrats) challengers for House seats, more than three times the number before the 2016 election.  They have collectively raised $14.9 million, outpacing any similar period in campaigns in recent years.  More than $10 million of that money has gone to challengers in four districts in Orange County where Hillary Clinton won last year, which are held by Republican representatives Ed Royce, Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher, and Darrell Issa.  These districts are a key focus of the DCCC in their planning to take back the House.  

If you are a veteran or interested in Veteran’s affairs, Congressman and (DCCC Region 5 Vice Chair) Ted Lieu is hosting a Veterans Town Hall on November 10, at Wadsworth Theater in West LA at 2:00 PM.

Club Activities

Moving on to our Club activities, Thom Tibor’s Ready-to-Run event planning committee has already picked January 20, 2-5 PM, as the time, and the lovely Studio Channel Islands as the venue, for our next club fundraiser.  Candidates will speak and be able to distribute campaign envelopes and flyers.  Please volunteer to help if you can, let your friends know, and do what you can to ensure that ticket sales will be brisk! 

We are required to submit our Region 10 pre-endorsement conference representative list to the Ventura Central Committee and Region 10 Director by midnight, November 2.  Our Club is allotted five members, so I hope five of us will show team spirit in signing up for this important job at our upcoming Thursday meeting. 

The year has passed quickly.  It is already time to elect a new E-Board, and hold our traditional investiture meal in December.  We have circulated a list of nominated candidates for E-Board, and we will also be accepting nominations from the floor at our November 2nd meeting.  Moreover, we have just learned that we will need someone to serve as corresponding secretary, so hopefully someone will step forward.  Ray Freeman will be our featured speaker; his topic is "Facts of Life for Democrats: A Crash Course on Money and Jobs.”    I look forward to seeing you all there.                

Our hearts go out to the families and innocent victims of the largest mass casualty shooting spree in U.S. history ... in Las Vegas.  The only silver lining is the incredible spirit and resiliency of the Las Vegas community in their response to the tragedy.  The Las Vegas police and first responders and the hospitals were magnificent.  People lined up to give blood, and local restaurants made sure the lines were supported with food and drink to protect the donors from dehydration.  The Convention Center was quickly turned into a clearinghouse of information and support for survivors and victim’s relatives while they recovered from the immediate aftermath of the shooting.    

As we recover from the shock, we will inevitably continue the national discussion about sensible gun control regulations.  In revolutionary times, our Founding Fathers obviously had no idea about anything other than single-shot flintlock rifles and muskets when they wrote the Second Amendment into the Constitution: “a well-regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of people to bear arms shall not be impaired.”  Those were different times. Many of the Founding Fathers feared the cost and coercive power of a large standing army, or foreign powers with professional armies, at a time when most citizens were rural residents accustomed to hunting to supplement farm-grown diets. They saw a trained militia (like today’s National Guard) as a substitute for a large standing army.  I wonder what our Founding Fathers would have thought about the way some choose to interpret the Second Amendment in our present-day circumstances?  Some in Congress even want to permit the expansion of concealed carry permits and silencer sales, which would make it even harder for law enforcement to foil would-be perpetrators of mass gun violence.  After so many mass shootings -- the Aurora theater, Sandy Hook, San Bernardino, the Orlando Pulse nightclub and now Las Vegas, we will see if our representatives can see their way forward to having a serious discussion, and crafting sensible solutions to our present-day problem of preventing mass casualty shootings.  
  
While the country was facing devastating hurricane and storm damage in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, the Republicans made another try at repealing the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”); this seems to be an ongoing theme.  The week the Administration was announcing its tax “reform” initiative, and that Puerto Rico was working to recover from its worst storm in modern history, the President was stepping into the NFL knee protest controversy, utterly failing to calm the waters, while at the same time picking a fight with the Mayor of San Juan and suggesting in his inimitable style that she was not doing a good job.  Oh, and about that tax “reform” plan.  While the President claimed it’s not going to benefit the rich (like him), we easily see that it removes the estate tax (which only benefits those who have more than $11 million) and lowers business tax rates from 32 percent to 20 percent.  There are many unknowns about the proposal, let alone the ways it could be modified in the legislative process, but it appears that the proposed repeal of the state and local tax deduction could force many California taxpayers to pay more in Federal taxes.

Last week, Governor Brown signed a bill into law moving California’s presidential primary forward forward from June to March 20, 2020.  This would make California fifth in the nominating process according to current projected schedules.   As California Secretary of State Padilla said, by moving the primary ahead, “Candidates will not be able to ignore the largest, most diverse state in the nation as they seek our country’s highest office.”    The 2018 statewide primary will still take place in June.

Those who attended the Kennedy Legacy Dinner on September 24 at the Crown Plaza were treated to a great evening.  California Democratic luminaries John Chiang, Dave Jones, and Fiona Ma showed in their remarks that they understand the challenges of the lives of everyday Californians.  They effectively and eloquently defended California’s model and strategies for resisting the Administration’s initiatives. Their remarks were welcomed with generous applause and standing ovations.  Senator Henry Stern and Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin introduced outstanding Ventura activists.  Later Henry stole the show with his humor in auctioning off meals with Eric Bauman and himself to benefit the Ventura Democratic Party; I can’t remember all the inducements he offered to keep the bids flowing, but at one point I think he gave away his car as well as his jacket.

Ventura County Democratic Party’s Social Committee has organized a wonderful group outing with a limited number of tickets to the Dodger’s playoff game this coming Saturday (October 7)!  Tickets are $100 in cash or $125 through Act Blue.  The package includes travel on a “party bus ” and prime seating in the outfield and promises to be a lot of fun!

Please don’t forget that we are holding our Pizza Fundraiser for the Club this coming Thursday, October 5 at 6:00 pm.  I have heard that RSVPs are coming in at a brisk pace, so if you are inclined to join us for pizza and salad, by all means, call in your reservation to Carol Bley so that we can ensure sufficient supplies of pizza (the flyer for the event appears on the Home Page).  Right afterwards, we have a great program of speakers including Jacqui Irwin, Camarillo City Councilmember Kevin Kildee, and former President of the Los Angeles Community College District and 2018 candidate for the Board of Equalization Scott Svonkin.  I look forward to seeing you there!