I thought this month I was going to write about elections… about what seats we lost, what seats we won, and what all of that means for us as Democrats. I wish that was what I could write about, but my heart cannot bring my fingers to write the words. With all that has been going on since Thursday, November 8th, I am still in shock and am in mourning, as I know we all are. 
 
I will write that blog about our wins and our losses, and I will also write about the insane fires that are still decimating our state, our county, and our community. But, today I am writing from a different place than usual. When I sat at my computer, I had no words that seemed to make sense.  No blog I could write talking about the senseless shooting could convey how I feel, and I cannot convey my deep sense of devastation with such an outlet. Instead, I closed my eyes and let my fingers write what my heart was feeling.
 
I would like to share this poem that I wrote with you all.
 
Security of a Free State
 
Thousands of people are murdered day to day,
And our government is ignoring our pleas in every single way.
Voices, and voices, and voices are yelling… SCREAMING out to say-
ENOUGH is enough! How many lives have to fade away?!?
 
“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State”…
Because of these words, a solution many abate,
Because of these words, so many procrastinate,
Because of these words, there is no mandate. 
 
Trying to protect our families, our loved ones, our children- our collective heart stills,
Sending our kids to school these days gives many of us chills.
Our children spend their days doing active shooter drills,
Because of a declaration that was written 227 years ago, with old ancient quills.
 
Since when does a desire to collect lethal weapons outweigh lives?
With this prioritization society is lower than ever and our humanity dives.
How many children must bleed before we realize,
That every drop of who we are, what we stand for, fades and forever dies.
 
A crying father, who lost his daughter, telling his story, is ostracized,
He speaks from the heart, pleading for compassion, for understanding, for sanity, and he is only chastised.
Those of us who hear him must speak up, hold him high, honor his daughter and others lost, and do what is wise.
We must ban together, stand up tall, fight the fight the fight, and galvanize.
 
Because, if we do not who are we... what do we stand for?
How many generations will have to practice dropping to the floor?
 “The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed” people roar,
But we won't let you take our brothers, our sisters, our mothers, our fathers, our friends, and our children...any more.
 
Enough is enough.
 
Gun violence has to stop- what we are doing now is not working. There are local groups who are fighting gun violence, and I will be sharing events with the Club. Please join our group “Democratic Club of Camarillo” if you are on Facebook, and please sign up for email notifications for activism activities via our club email if you are interested in this or any other activism:  DemClubofCam@gmail.com.
 
We must do something… We cannot keep sitting in silence.
 

We Believe You
 
I am a mother of an eight-year-old little girl. She is bright, loving, kind, quite feisty, and is full of hopes and dreams for the future. She wants to be a scientist when she grows up. I know that no matter what she wants to do in life, she can achieve it- there is no question in my mind. I don't worry about her ability to reach her dreams because she is so smart and so driven, and because so many women have paved the way before her. But, I left some things out about her, some things that may very well make life much harder for her ... She is tall, has long blond hair, huge gorgeous green eyes, long eyelashes, she has a toned/athletic build, and she has that perfect “California tan.” This is my child, my little girl, and I cannot tell you how many times in only eight years that I have worried about her, worried about her being sexually harassed at some point in her life, or worried about even worse.
 
It seems ludicrous that a parent would worry about such things for their young child, right?  Many may think so; many may even think it was outlandish or inappropriate for a parent to even mention such things when it comes to a child. Many may wonder, who is worrying about these types of issues at such young ages?  I can tell you that I certainly do, and I know that many more parents out there today do as well.  Last week, America sent a message loud and clear to women, and to parents of girls - women are not safe here.
 
This week was beyond difficult for countless women.  To hopefully spare more pain, I would like to place a “trigger warning” here out of mindfulness and respect for those who have been hurt by sexual assault. Sisters, please spare your hearts, and do not proceed if this topic is difficult for you.  
 
Brett Kavanaugh is being interviewed for one of the most important positions in this country; he also has been accused of sexual assault - and the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee don't feel the need for it to be investigated.  The woman accusing him, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, spoke about how she recalls Brett Kavanaugh holding her down and covering her mouth as he attempted to take her clothes off so he could rape her. She spoke about how she feared that the extremely drunk Kavanaugh would accidentally kill her in the process. She spoke about how the laughter of Kavanaugh, and his friend who was there, Mark Judge, has haunted her ever since that terrifying day. It is beyond me why the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee didn't think this was something that needed to be investigated. Even when women are found to be credible (as everyone has found Dr. Blasey Ford to be), crimes against us, violence against us, trauma caused to us ... is not even worth looking into.  What message does that send to women, girls, and survivors of sexual assault?  I can tell you what it tells me, a survivor of sexual assault, I can tell you what it tells me, a mother of a young girl ... it tells me that women are not safe here. 
 
Back in June of this year (2018) a report claimed that the United States ranked in the top ten of the most dangerous countries for women.  While many would find such a statement completely outrageous, if one were to consider the the risks women face as far as sexual violence, harassment, sexual coercion, and women's access to justice in cases of sexual assault, one may see why the US was found in this report to be unsafe for women. Many people don't realize that every 96 seconds a person in the US experiences sexual assault. Sexual violence affects hundreds of thousands of Americans each year, and one out of every six American women has been the victim of a rape or attempted rape. Only six out of every 1,000 accused rapists will end up in prison. And in the case of Brett Kavanaugh, if it wasn't for Senator Jeff Flake (R- AZ), Christine Blase Ford's accusations against Kavanaugh wouldn't have been further looked into.   
 
(I would like to also acknowledge that it is not only cis women who are assaulted sexually. Over 3 million men in the US have been victims of sexual assault. One out of ten rape victims are male. Sexual assault also impacts the LGBTQA+ community. Twenty-one percent of TGQN (transgender, genderqueer, nonconforming) college students have been sexually assaulted, compared to 18% of non-TGQN females, and 4% of non-TGQN males.)    
 
Women are not safe here... but something can be done. We will continue the fight that was started decades ago by courageous women, we will stand, march, write, call, protest, fight, scream, and VOTE! We will do this hand-in-hand with other strong women, with our allies, with our daughters, and granddaughters; and we will never stop fighting until everyone ... Every. Single. One. Of us is safe. 
 
We believe you.
 
Closer To Home 

I hope that everyone has found a candidate or five (or more!) that they have been making time to help out with during this election cycle. There are lots of amazing Democrats running and they all need our support! 

I wanted to take some time to acknowledge the amazing contributions to our community that our members have been making.  It is so important to me that our club members find causes that speak to their hearts, and that everyone finds opportunities that they can give back to that support our wonderful Democratic values.  The Democratic Party is the people's party, and I don't think any of us would be Democrats if we didn't deeply believe in giving back to our community.  In honor of all of the community support that our club members have been giving this past month, I wanted to list some of the activities and activism that we all have been involved in: 

Actions to stop fracking, Rise for Climate, California Coastal Clean Up Day, Alzheimer's disease awareness, many of our members (including myself) belong to DMOC (Democratic Moms of Camarillo) and raised $300 for CAUSE and $1000 to sponsor Conjeo Valley Pride, Walk to Fight Suicide, the launch of the Ventura County Climate Reality group, voter registration at Conejo Pride, National Voter Registration Day, First Responders Appreication Day, SoCal Stands with Puerto Rico march and protest, National Walkout & Moment of Solidarity (protesting Kavanugh), #BELIVESURVIVORS- protest against Brett Kavanaugh and support of survivors of sexual assault, Precinct Captain training, Ban Gun Shows at the Ventura Fairgrounds,  Get Out The Vote and Flip events, and many more I'm sure I forgot. 

From the depth of my heart- THANK YOU! Thank you to everyone out there trying to make a difference in one way or another.

If you are looking for ways to give back to our community, and/or to support local campaigns, please feel free to reach out to me and I'm happy to help connect you with a cause that speaks to your heart.

Calls To Action

• Don't forget the children separated from their families. Make calls, protest, donate, talk about it. Whatever you can.
• Kavanaugh cannot become a justice on the SCOTUS. Continue to call and express your discontent with the nomination.
• A proposal for 79 new oil wells to extract tar sands, expanding an existing oil and gas operation on the Oxnard Plain next to Camarillo airport.  Contact Supervisor Kelly Long (who is in support of oil drilling and expansion) to let her know this project requires proper environmental review
• Flip the House - we still have a lot of work to do to keep fighting to win back the house.  Write those post cards, make those calls, and advocate, advocate, advocate.

 
If you are on Facebook, please join our group page “Democratic Club of Camarillo” as we are constantly adding events, social awareness activities, and opportunities for activism there.
 
Dates To Remember

• October 4 – Next regular Club meeting
• October 7 - Camarillo Blue (Biennial fundraiser for Democratic candidates) 
• November 6 – Election Day

 
November Club Meeting

November's meeting has been moved one week to November 8th, the second Tuesday of the month.  That will give us time to digest the results of the election.  Helping us will be Tim Allison, Adjunct Professor of Political Science at CSU Channel Islands.

​Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow 

A few weeks ago, as I drove up the 101 on our way to a local protest, I played Aretha Franklin's legendary hit "Respect" for my 8 year old daughter. Listening to one of the Queen of Soul's most famous songs made me think  about the impact that these types of strong anthems have had on me growing up. I remember growing up listening to provoking songs such as “Fortunate Son” (Creedence Clearwater Revival, 1969), “Treat Me Right” (Pat Benatar, 1980), and the ever so popular and inspirational “Don't Stop Believin'” (Journey, 1981); and, I am almost certain that my activism started the day that my parents bought me the “We Are The World” 45  (USA for Africa, 1985). (This is where our younger members will be Googling what a “45” is.) 

I know that this may come across as a music blog versus a blog for a Democratic Club, but I can't but help connect the messages of all of these songs and others, that speak out from countless musical genres, to the social and political climate in which each of them were written into.  These songs were born from pain, frustration, fear, and the desire to make a change. These are the exact circumstances that many of us find ourselves in today. 

I think it would be difficult to write a song that expresses the trauma that the Trump administration is causing so many people. As of today, there are still nearly 500 migrant children who were taken from their families and continue to be psychologically traumatized (I would like to remind you that this tactic was intentional– the President's intent was to cause trauma to these families as a form of deterrent. He willfully and purposefully traumatized children.).  His intent on appointing Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is a threat to civil liberties of our citizens, especially to those with internal reproductive organs. It has come out that the White House is withholding 100,000 pages of  Judge Kavanaugh's records. Why?... Well, we all know why. Because there is incriminating information in there that would likely make it very difficult for Brett Kavanaugh to be confirmed as SCOTUS. 

Hopefully soon the President will be having his own difficulties. The Mueller investigation is heating up, with the Special Counsel's investigation having so far produced nearly 200 criminal charges against 32 people and three businesses.  Six people have pleaded guilty to crimes, including former Trump associates (former campaign adviser George Papadopoules, former national security adviser Michael Flynn, former campaign adviser Rick Gates, and now Michael Cohen, Trump's former personal attorney).  Former Trump associate and former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, was also found guilty of eight of the 18 financial crimes charged against him. Mueller is closing in on Trump and many speculate that the Special Counsel is close to being able to connect Trump to illegal activity to which he will suffer consequences - which may include indictment. Hopefully soon, the only wall that will be built, will be the walls of a jail cell built for a former president. 

With all of the political turmoil going on, I find myself looking somewhere for inspiration, somewhere for strength. I often look  to the powerful anthems and songs that have come out of the events we are living today, such as “Where is the Love” (Black Eyed Peas Ft. Justin Timberlake, 2003), “Run the World (Girls)” (Beyonce, 2011), and “Born This Way” (Lady Gaga, 2011). Music will always connect us to the world, connect our hearts and souls with the plights of those around us, and if we listen close enough, we can hear that even though many of the words seem to be coming from a place of anger and fear they always end in hope. As long as we care, as long as we fight these injustices, fight for the earth, and fight the current administration... there is hope; and, this hope reminds me of the immortal words of Fleetwood Mac... “Don't stop thinking about tomorrow” (“Don't Stop”, 1977). 

Closer To Home

As I am sure all of you know, there are three seats up for election for Camarillo City Council. Nine candidates are running for the three seats, and several of those candidates are members of our own club, including our former President Angus Simmons. We will be hosting our annual fundraiser, Camarillo Blue, on October 7th. This is where we will provide the community an opportunity to meet our local Democratic candidates and contribute to their campaigns. I encourage everyone to attend, and if you are not able to, please carve out some time to speak with all of the candidates to see which resonate most with you and your values. We also have two City Council term limit measures that will be on the ballot in November - Measures E and M.  Measure E allows up to 12 years service (three four-year terms), followed by a required four-year break before running again.  Measure M allows up to eight years service (two four-year terms) and that's it.  There is much more comprehensive information online on each measure, and I certainly encourage everyone to read as much as they can before making their informed decision. 

Additionally around elections, those of us in the Democratic Club of Camarillo, who are interested in helping to flip a House seat can participate in the CA-25 race, where Katie Hill is running against Republican incumbent Steve Knight. 

Calls To Action

• There are still more than 500 children who are separated from their families. Every day away is causing them more and more trauma. Make calls, protest, donate, talk about it. Whatever you can.
• SB100 – Call Governor Brown (916-445-2841) and ask that he sign SB100, pledging to make California 100% renewable grid energy by 2045.
• Kavanaugh cannot become SCOTUS. If Kavanaugh is seated, then he will be making decisions on if a sitting President can be indicted. Continue to call and express your discontent with the nomination.
• In February the Ventura County Planning Department approved three new oil and gas wells in Oxnard, on the close border to Camarillo. We need to work to change the archaic “zoning clearance” process by which these wells were approved.
• Flip the House - we still have a lot of work to do to keep fighting to win back the house. Write those post cards, make those calls, and advocate, advocate, advocate.

 
Dates To Remember

• September 8- People's Climate March and RISE
• September 16 – Kennedy Legacy Awards Dinner
• September 25 – National Voter Registration Day
• October 7 - Camarillo Blue (Our annual fundraiser for Democratic candidates) 
• November 6 – Election Day

 
Our Club Meetings

I hope to see you at our Club meeting this Thursday, September 6th.  Our speaker will be Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, who will discuss issues and legislation of importance to Ventura County.  She will also fill us in on her re-election campaign.

On October 4th I will be speaking on Al Gore's Climate Reality Leadership Project.  I am a recent graduate of his training held in Los Angeles.

​The World According to Trump

Like all of you, I am feeling a bit whiplashed by the dizzying pace of unusual foreign and domestic policy developments issuing from our nation's capital.  Facebook is now saying that it is seeing some of the same kinds of attacks being perpetrated against our midterm elections as it saw during the 2016 election cycle.  

Following a NATO Summit where the President ruffled our allies’ feathers, he followed up with a two-man summit and photo op between himself and Putin in Helsinki.  Missing in all this is a rational foreign policy coordinated through the resources of our Federal Government.  The follow-up Putin visit to Washington that was announced for this Autumn now seems to have sunk without trace, after a day of inarticulate obfuscation by the President.   

More Trump missteps ...  Now that he has dumped all over the Iran agreement, he is evidently ready to meet with Iran’s President at any time.  Meanwhile, reports are emerging that North Korea could be building new missiles.   And the President says he is ready to shut down the government over border security though Messrs McConnell and Ryan say they are not interested in a shutdown. I suppose it would be churlish at this point to remind you the President blithely claimed during the campaign that Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

Rudy Holds Forth

Trump’s representative Rudy Giuliani gyrates through the airwaves daily with a song and dance about the Mueller investigation, spinning this way and that ... there was no collusion, but even if there were, it wouldn’t have been a crime ... there may have been another meeting before the Trump Tower meeting or not, but if there were, the President definitely didn’t attend it ... nothing will happen in the Manafort trial that can hurt the President ... nothing lawyer Cohen knows could harm the President.  And so on and so on ...  

All of this begs the question that if the President is such a great judge of character and has so many great people around him, why is this cast of characters dominating public discourse in such a unique way?  

Further Confusion

And we are watching as Trump’s latest nominee for the Supreme Court confirmation, Judge Kavanaugh, is set to undergo his confirmation hearing facing very divided public opinion, with a lower public opinion approval levels than Harriet Meirs.  After countries like Mexico, Canada, and China implemented retaliatory tariffs, the Administration is offering up a $12 billion agricultural aid package.  But, the dairy industry alone has lost $1.8 billion in the last several weeks; the U.S. has the largest cheese surplus in our history; dairy farmers will likely face volatile prices; and there is no guarantee that lost markets abroad can be regained.  California Attorney General Becerra’s office has now filed 38 legal actions (the number was only 24 last December) against federal agencies or opposing new administration policies.  

What's Our Answer?

We have all heard that old Will Rogers saw, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.”  Humor has its place, but my thoughts are being drawn more to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, who noted that “a majority is always better than the best repartee.”  The majority we need to be focused on is attaining a majority in the House, for which we need 24 additional Democratic seats.   The odds that we will take the House appear to have improved over the past month. On Tuesday, the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball changed its ratings in 17 House districts…all in favor of Democrats.  The Democratic lead in the generic ballot of RealClearPolitics polling average has shifted from 3.2 percentage points to 7.1 points.  

Democrats have been outraising Republicans in a number of competitive districts.  In fact, for the second quarter this year, in House races, Democrats outraised Republicans. Democrats outraised 56 Republican incumbents while only three Republicans outraised Democratic incumbents, $146 million to $102 mil (Politico).  But, as we all know, the only poll that counts is the voting that takes place in our General Election on November 6, so let’s stay organized and focused. 

On August 2, the day of our next Club meeting, we will be 96 days away from the election. For those of you who want to make an active contribution to Democratic efforts the time is nigh ... voter registration, canvassing, phoning, helping with mailing, donating to campaigns.  And remember that, 52 percent of voters in Ventura are vote-by-mail (VBM). Those ballots will be arriving at homes around the first of October, so the opportunity to influence those voters falls away as election day approaches.  

Local Elections

For those of us in the Democratic Club of Camarillo, who are interested in helping to flip a House seat, the nearest available opportunity is CA-25, where Katie Hill is running against Republican incumbent Steve Knight.   Ryan Valencia, the First Vice Chair of the Ventura County Democratic Central Committee will be attending our Thursday meeting to update us on that campaign and tell us how we can help.  More below ...

Hollywood is Calling!

Are any of you interested in being an extra in a Democratic PAC film being produced in Santa Paula? Producer Tye Alexander is looking for about 100 enthusiastic extras to be in Santa Paula on Sunday, August 5th. He may also be looking for a few cameo speakers.  If you are interested, contact Tye at (914) 441-8311 or email him at theiririshman@prideofgypsies.com.  Also upcoming is the Ventura County Fair, where our club will be staffing the booth on Wednesday, August 8th.   We are still looking for volunteers, so please call me at (805) 689-8108) if you are available any time from 10 am to 10 pm.

Our Club Meeting

We have a full agenda for our Club meeting.  As noted above, Ryan Valencia will speak about Katie Hill’s CA-25 congressional campaign; he will also address Christy Smith’s California Assembly campaign.  In addition, CSUCI Adjunct Professor of Political Science Tim Allison will speak about the propositions that are going to be on the ballot in November.  

​I look forward to seeing you there,

The Demise of Scott Pruitt

​Scott Pruitt, the EPA Administrator we have all reviled for his unethical conduct and for rolling back environmental protections, has finally resigned.  We know someone with his kind of ethical lapses would not have lasted so long in a Democratic administration (and in fairness, in most Republican administrations as well).  Of course, he may be replaced by someone equally bad for the environment, but it is hard to imagine any replacement being so lacking in personal probity.

Big Trouble at the Supreme Court

The focus at the Federal level has now shifted to the Supreme Court, where the news that Justice Kennedy (a swing vote in favor of abortion rights) is stepping down, gave Donald Trump a second High Court pick.  He has nominated Brett Kavanaugh, Yale-trained and tagged as an originalist judge in the mold of Anton Scalia, i.e.  one who looks to original meaning in the Constitution.  Kavanaugh has an impeccable conservative record including working with Independent Prosecutor Kenneth Starr during the Bill Clinton witch hunt.   

With Republican control of the Senate hanging by a narrow margin, a lot of attention is falling on two Republican Senators who support Roe v. Wade, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.  However, both Senators voted to confirm Judge Cavanaugh to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals back in 2006.  Many prominent Democratic Senators, including both California Senators, have already lined up in opposition, and we can expect a heated confirmation process.  We saw that the Democratic opposition was unable to block Justice Gorsuch’s appointment, and three Democrats voted in favor of his appointment.  But all will recognize that the appointment of a second conservative pick is likely to result in a rightward shift of the court for many years. That is different than Justice Gorsuch simply replacing Justice Scalia and may rachet up the intensity of the confirmation hearing. 

Trump's Trade Policy ... or Lack Thereof

Administration trade policy is continuing to confuse and cause unintended consequences.  Steel tariffs caused Mid-Continent Nail, the largest U.S. producer of nails, to lay off workers, and consider closing or moving to Mexico after its orders dropped 50% when the company tried to pass on its higher steel costs.   

Harley-Davidson invested in India back in 2011 to be able to break into that country's tariff-protected market.  It is now opening a plant in Thailand to supply southeast Asia as well as its growing China market.  Forty percent of Harley’s sales are international, and the European retaliatory tariffs of 31% would raise the price of its motorcycles by $2,200 per bike, so it plans to shift production abroad over the coming months to avoid $90-100 million per year in European tariffs.  

You will remember that solar panels became the subject of tariffs last winter.  Lest you think that analysis of this kind of policy is simple, China’s largest producer of solar panels, Jinko has not used Chinese-produced solar cells in the U.S. market for some time.  It uses Malaysian cells, which are taxed at 30%, rather than cells from China which would be taxed at a cumulative 85% tariff.  Jinko is opening a plant in Florida using the Malaysian cells to meet U.S. market needs.  

The US Chamber of Commerce has estimated that 2.6 million jobs are at risk because of Administration trade policies including the impact of ending NAFTA.  According to Moody’s Analytics, 700,000 jobs could be lost over the next year as a result of tariffs already proposed. 

The Latest on Immigration

Immigration has moved to center stage over the last month, with the dismal spectacle of our government acting to separate children from their parents, and the President and his Administration blithely positing that due process is not needed for unauthorized immigrants despite more than a century of Supreme Court rulings. Sorry Mr. President,  “Aliens, even aliens whose presence in this country is unlawful, have long been recognized as ‘persons’ guaranteed due process of law by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments,” said the Court in 1982.  

In the wrangling over California’s stance on immigration, Eastern District Court of California Judge John Mendez, who was appointed by George W. Bush, upheld SB 54’s constitutionality against Attorney General Sessions’ and the DOJ’s first round of challenge, which means that California police and sheriffs will be able to continue limiting cooperation with immigration enforcement.  In handing down his verdict, Judge Mendez joined a growing chorus of Americans in urging Congress to find a long-term solution to federal immigration policy, “to set aside partisan and polarizing politics dominating the current immigration debate and work in a cooperative and bipartisan fashion toward drafting and passing legislation that addresses this critical political issue.”  “Our Nation deserves it”…”Our Constitution demands it,” he wrote.

The Trump immigration election agenda is certain to be an issue in the November elections in California. According to a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted in May (even before the current focus on immigration), 19% of the California’s likely voters identified immigration as a top concern vs 15% who mentioned jobs.  A year ago, jobs topped the polls.   This could be an important factor in races such as the 10th District (R Jeff Denham) or our nearby 25th District (R Steve Knight) where the issue is likely to boost Democratic turnout, and where Latinos make up around 25% of voters. 

Closer to Home

Locally, candidates are beginning to make the rounds, and the filing period for non-partisan races in our district will be underway from July 16 – August 12.  The Democratic Club of Ventura has organized what looks to be a great “Keep It Blue” brunch on Sunday, July 22, at the Pierpont Inn, It will be emceed by California Democratic Party Chair Eric Bauman, and feature, among others, representatives Julia Brownley and Salud Carbajal, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kevin de Leon.  

We will be staffing our booth at the Camarillo Fiesta July 17 - 18, and at Ventura County Fair, on August 8.  We need volunteers, so please sign up with Jim Paulson for the Fiesta and contact me if you are willing to take a stint at the County Fair on August 8.
​
Our meeting this month will be on Thursday, July 12.  Our featured speaker will be CSU Channel Islands (Osher Lifelong Learning Institute) lecturer B J Fan, who will be speaking about renewable energy and environmental policy in China, and may make a few interesting observations about American policy by way of contrast.  I look forward to seeing you there.

Primary Election

​I hope all of you have exercised your most precious right to vote in this week’s California primary.  I know we will all now be focusing time and energy analyzing the results and thinking about how to proceed for November. 

Over 19 million Californians are registered to vote, which is more than three-quarters of our eligible voters.   When reporting these statistics, Secretary of State Alex Padilla cites automatic registration through the DMV as well as a new mobile friendly voter registration website and updated paper registration forms. Democrats are still the largest bloc of voters at 44 percent.  I was interested to read that Republicans at 25.1 percent of registered voters now trail those who show no party preference at 25.5 percent.  Unfortunately, two-thirds of potential voters typically do not cast ballots in non-Presidential elections, and a higher percentage of Republicans vote than Democrats.  

We have all seen a lot of commentary on last night’s results. A couple of things stood out to me. I agree with the Los Angeles Times that the results of the governor’s race indicate that the contest between Gavin Newsom and John Cox, who was backed by Trump, will inevitably draw focus to national themes.  The third finisher, Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, quickly endorsed Newsom Tuesday night, so in our Democratic dominated state, most pundits are suggesting Newsom has an easy path to victory.  Nevertheless, with a traditional donkey-elephant race at the top of the ticket, Republicans will remain motivated to turn out and vote for down-ballot candidates. 

We will continue to argue about the merits and demerits of our unique “jungle primary” system where the first two candidates in the primary proceed to the November general election.  Bearing in mind that the path to taking over control of the House this fall leads through California, Democrats have been focusing on seven races in districts where Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that had Republican Congressional incumbents.  There had been concern that the proliferation of enthusiastic Democratic candidates (leading, for example, to 16 candidates on the ballot in the 49th Congressional district) motivated by anti-Trump sentiment would split Democratic votes in a number of key congressional races, leaving only Republican candidates competing in the fall. This appears not to have happened. It looks as though a Democratic candidate has placed second in all seven of the most competitive Congressional races, giving us opportunities for gain in November.  The national Democrats spent over $7 million to support candidates in the 48th, 49th, and 39th districts (held by Republicans Rohrabacher, Issa, and Royce, respectively) in Orange County, to boost Democratic candidates they believed had a chance to move forward to the general election.  In our nearby 25th district, incumbent Republican Steve Knight took first place, and among several Democratic candidates, Katie Hill narrowly edged out Brian Caforio for the right to compete in November. 

We lost the Democratic supermajority in the California state legislature with the recall vote of Democratic State Senator Josh Newman in the 29th district, over his vote for Senate Bill 1, which increased the gas tax and vehicle fees to pay for road and bridge repairs and mass transit improvements.  Overall, 81 legislators voted for the measure, but Republicans chose to target Newman’s district because he had won narrowly in 2016 (by 2,500 votes out of 320,000 over former Republican Assemblymember Ling Ling Chang), in a district that had previously been represented by termed-out Republican Senator Bob Huff and was long seen as a Republican bastion.  Successful recalls are rare in California; before this primary, just five successful recalls have occurred since 1913.  However, with a viable Republican candidate in the wings, money was spent to collect signatures and put the recall on the ballot.   According to a recent Dornsife Los Angeles Times poll, 51% of California voters want to repeal the gas tax, but the numbers are even higher in Orange and San Diego counties at 64%, so the stratagem of using a recall worked in circumstances where public opinion/voter anger over a single issue could be tapped.  The state Republican party invested more than $1.2 million into the recall election, including more than $490,000 in support of Chang.  I think we should be very wary about recalls, pushed by narrow, well-funded interest groups, gaining currency in our political system.

Before we leave elections, I want to thank all of you who served as volunteer election staff under Marianne Slaughter and Rick Gardner’s Adopt-a-Poll leadership on Tuesday. By volunteering this service, we earn a little bit of income for our club, but this is also a vital contribution to our community and the fabric of our democracy!

Success on SB 54 at City Hall
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I want to thank those of you who showed up in the recent Camarillo City Council meetings, which turned back a movement to get our city to sign on to joining a legal challenge to SB 54, aka, the California Values Act.  According to the Camarillo Acorn, 59 speakers supported SB 54 or urged the city to do nothing, while 36 speakers demanded action at the third meeting on May 23 when the issue was on the City Council agenda.  It appeared  that quite a few of those who supported opposing SB 54 came from outside of Camarillo, pushing a divisive, Trumpist immigration agenda.  This episode is just one more example, as if one were needed, of how important it is to keep informed and show up to participate in our democratic institutions.  Our Council recognized the legal battle on immigration enforcement between the state and federal governments was being decided in the courts and outside the purview of the city council, and voted unanimously not to take a position for or against SB 54.  

Our Club Meeting

This month’s meeting on Thursday, June 7, will feature Santa Barbara First District Supervisor Das Williams as our invited speaker.  As you will remember in his past life in the State Assembly, he represented a number of Ventura County residents including some in Camarillo.  Also, Kimberly Rivers of CFROG (Citizens for Responsible Oil and Gas) will update us on efforts to oppose plans to greatly increase oil drilling near Sturgis Road.    I look forward to seeing you there.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

​Surfing on the Blue Wave

Another month and more indications of a possible blue wave in the House.  This last month, Speaker Paul Ryan announced he would not run again, shortly followed by Dennis Ross of Florida and Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania ... adding to the roster of Republicans members of Congress who have announced they are not planning to run this fall.  This makes 46 Republicans in the House who have announced they are retiring or have resigned since January 2017, including ten Republican Committee Chairs.  

In heavily Republican Arizona, a special Congressional election was held in a district encompassing the suburbs of Phoenix that is typically 13 points more Republican than the national average.  No Democrat in this century has reached 40% of the vote in this district.  But this time, a modestly financed first-time Democratic candidate, Doctor Tiperneni Hiral, lost to Republican State Senator Debbie Lesko in a tight race  53% to 47%; on the heels of her excellent showing, Dr. Hilal has announced she plans to run again in November.  

The next day in New York, Democrats won an Assembly seat that had been represented by Republicans since 1978 and also took two open New York Senate seats.  Here in our backyard, more than half of California’s 14 incumbents raised less than their Democratic opponents in the last quarter of 2017, and Republican Congressmen McClintock, Rohrabacher, and Knight were outraised by one of their Democratic challengers in the first quarter of 2018.

The Latest in Trumpworld

The chaos continued to swirl around Trumpworld.  The airwaves have been dominated by former FBI head James Comey’s book interviews ... and legal wrangling over the President’s relationship with Stormy Daniels.  Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen had his office and home searched and various documents seized.  While Trump got his Secretary of State confirmed, his under-vetted nominee for the Department of Veteran's Affairs went down in flames.  Trump’s head of the Environmental Protection Agency has faced a very public drubbing for his ethics lapses.

Meanwhile, Republicans on the Congressional Intelligence Committee have shown a lack of interest in pursuing leads that might damage the President; they issued a final Republican report exonerating the President.  The following day, in an interview with Richard Engel, Russian lawyer Velenitskaya of Trump Tower fame, acknowledged that she was an informant for the Russian Crown Prosecutor, confirming a closer relationship to Russian officialdom than previously understood.  

The Sinclair Broadcast Group and the Federal Communications Commission

The President’s continuous and virtually uncritical loop with Fox News and some other outlets is characteristic of the Trump presidency.   During the 2016 election, the Trump campaign also gave regular access to the Sinclair Broadcast Group, which broadcast Trump interviews without commentary.   Sinclair has been criticized by some for its “must run” political commentary and pre-packaged news segments.  

The Sinclair Broadcast Group, already the largest U.S. broadcaster with 191 stations, is now waiting approval to merge with Tribune Media, which would give the new company the ability to reach 72% of homes across the U.S., surpassing the Congressionally mandated maximum reach of 39%.  This matter is being considered by the Federal Communications Commission and the Justice Department.   

Last April, Chairman Ajit Pai’s FCC reinstated a rule allowing UHF stations to be counted as having less reach than VHF channels to permit broadcasters more flexible growth options. Currently this rule change is subject to a D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals challenge, and 22 Democratic Senators would like the FCC to wait for the Court of Appeals to rule before proceeding.  Attorneys General in four states have opposed the merger saying Sinclair would have too much national power and could stifle points of view in local markets.

This is the same FCC, led by Ajit Pai, which reversed the Obama-era regulations on net neutrality for the Internet last December. In this instance, however, a number of states are already fighting back. Washington and Oregon have already enacted net neutrality laws, and Governors in five states – Hawaii, New Jersey, New York, Montana, and Vermont - have signed executive orders restoring the principle, and efforts are underway in California.  Like EPA Administrator Pruitt, Ajit Pai appears less interested in rules that were intended to protect the consumer, and more interested in creating an environment favorable to the communications industry.

Closer to Home ...

Today, our neighbors went to the polls in Oxnard to vote in a recall election set to cost $500,000. Ironically, the proximate cause of the recall was a utility rate hike to pay for necessary improvements in water treatment.  When all is said and done, Oxnard voters will still be heading to the polls again in November for City Council Elections, voting for candidates running for the first time in districts instead of citywide.  I am not the first to note that this recall election was a big expense for an election whose results will only apply for six more months until the November election, pushed on Oxnard by people who opposed legislators taking a vote to pay for a wastewater treatment rate increase.  

In a triumph for the Club and our friends at CFROG (Citizens for Responsible Oil and Gas), we were able to blunt an attempt by Kelly Long and Peter Foy of the Ventura County Board of Supervisors to exclude the public's right to appeal zoning clearances based on old land-use entitlements.  This would have expedited a zoning clearance to install 79 new oil drilling wells on county land adjoining Camarillo Airport.  The original permit for this project was granted in 1955 ... before the incorporation of Camarillo ... before the development of new extraction technologies ... and before environmental reviews.  Thanks to Rick Gardner and all of you for contacting the supervisors by email and phone to register your concerns.  But the issue is coming up again on the Supervisor's agenda on June 5th, election day.  Let’s remain vigilant.

I hope all of you will be joining us for our Pizza Fundraiser in support of our Scholarship Program this Thursday, May 3rd.  Our featured speaker will be Senator Hannah-Beth Jackson, aka “HBJ” to those of us who heard Kevin de Leon speak at the “Spring Fling.”  I hope to see you there.

​News from the Swamp

During a week when EPA Administrator Pruitt’s condo rental deal in DC is raising eyebrows, the swamp in Washington appears live and well.   David Cay Johnston provides an interesting timeline of activities in his article in New York Magazine entitled “501 Days in Swampland.”  Johnston says it is clear that "... Trump isn’t draining the swamp – he’s monetizing it.”  

As the Meuller investigation continues, the first sentence was handed down this week to Dutch lawyer Alex Van der Zwaag ... for lying to investigators.  Meanwhile legal wrangling over the Stormy Daniels matter has appeared regularly in the news.  Is it too much for Americans to expect that the decorum of the Presidency and the President’s Administration is a necessary quality of the office and that conduct of our leader should set a high example for our citizenry including our children?

Two members of large and important cabinet agencies exited the scene over the last month with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Veterans Affairs getting the sack, apparently not even receiving the courtesy of being told by the President.  We also saw the departure of Communications Director Hope Hicks, top Economic Advisor Gary Cohn, and National Security Advisor (the second) H.R.MacMaster.  This kind of turnover can’t help but create uncertainty and disruption to the cabinet agencies and offices that are experiencing the leadership change.

Improving Prospects for Democrats

All of this appears to be having an effect on the electorate.  With eight months to go before the November elections, Democrat Conor Lamb overcame a 2016 twenty-point Trump advantage in his Pennsylvania electoral district to be elected to Congress over his Republican rival, despite active Trump Administration campaigning and steel tariff policy decisions.  Pennsylvania Republican Congressman Ryan Costello announced that he would join more than 40 other Congressional Republicans in not seeking re-election in November.  (It might be added that 16 Democrats have also chosen not to run.)   

Since World War II, the party controlling the White House has on average lost 26 House seats in midterm elections.  The average has been 33 seats when the President’s job approval rating has been below 50%.  This bodes well for the Democrat’s chances of winning the 24 seats in November needed to take back control of the House.   Trump’s support among women voters has been eroding, with a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll showing support among women fell this month to 35 percent (being dubbed the “Stormy effect”).   it is also worth noting that there are twice as many women running for Congress this year as in 2016.

Congressional Races in California

Part of the road for control of the House obviously runs through California.  At the California Democratic Convention in San Diego, delegates voted to endorse eight Democratic candidates in key Congressional races in our state:  Jessica Morse (CA-24, running against Republican Tom McCintock), Marge Doyle (CA-8, running against Republican Paul Cook), Andrew Janz (CA-22, running against Republican Devin Nunes), Tatiana Matta (CA-23, running against Kevin McCarthy), Julia Peacock (CA-42, running against Republican Ken Calvert), Dave Min (CA-45, running against Republican Mimi Walters), Hans Keirstead (CA-48, running against Republican Dana Rohrabacher), and Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50, running against Republican Duncan Hunter Jr.).  And locally, we will be following efforts to turn neighboring CA-25 (currently held by Republican Steve Knight), where there are still several Democratic contenders competing to move forward in the June 5 primary.

Local Happenings

Here at home, the Ventura County Democratic Central Committee (VCDCC) voted at our last meeting to endorse Bernardo Perez for District 4 Supervisor, Caleb Donner for Ventura County Superior Court Judge (Office 4), and Michael Magasinn for Ventura County Superior Court Judge (Office 6).   Hopefully, many of you are thinking about purchasing tickets for the Ventura County Democratic Party’s Spring Fling, with Betty Yee as the featured speaker on April 14 at Los Robles Greens in Thousand Oaks.  I imagine there will be an opportunity to meet a number of other state and local candidates at the event.  Proceeds support our Party’s mission of turning Ventura County Blue.  Also, please remember to mark your calendar for our May 3 Scholarship Pizza Fundraiser and purchase tickets early so we know how much pizza to order!  Sen Hannah-Beth Jackson has agreed to speak to our Club that evening.
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Our featured speaker for our April Club meeting will be Oxnard Councilwoman Carmen Ramirez, speaking about the new disticts for city council elections in Oxnard, the recall, and other local issues.  In passing, I should mention that the VCDCC did endorse voting “No” on the Oxnard recall.  Judicial candidate Caleb Donner will also introduce himself as a candidate.  I look forward to seeing you all on Thursday. 

​More Turmoil in the White House

We have all witnessed astounding and historic churn in the chaotic Trump White House.  Hope Hicks, close Trump confidante and his fourth Communications Director, handed in her resignation, only one day after she had been grilled by the House Intelligence Committee for eight hours.  At one point during the testimony after being asked a question, she consulted her lawyer and then answered that she had on occasion told "white lies," but had never lied about substantive issues or anything concerning the Russian investigation.  

Ms. Hicks has been romantically linked to former White House Deputy Counselor Rob Porter who resigned in the midst of a scandal involving abuse against his previous spouses that blocked his ability to get a full security clearance.  In fact, in Trump’s White House, over 100 staffers been working under interim security clearances over a year into the administration, before the scandal shined a spotlight on the situation forcing Chief of Staff John Kelly to deal with it.  Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner has now had his security clearance downgraded to the point where it will likely make it hard for him to handle the high-profile foreign policy portfolios that he has been assigned.  Meanwhile reports are emerging that Kushner companies received large loans over the past year.    And the Meuller probe continues to march along.

Another Tragic Shooting

The country continues to react to the shootings at Marjorie Stoneham Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida two weeks ago.  Students from the school have been campaigning for action in Florida, Washington, and around the nation and it appears to be moving the needle. 

In a free-wheeling, televised discussion with Democratic and Republican lawmakers on possible gun-legislation, President Trump claimed he would deal with bump stocks presumably by executive order.  However, he encouraged the Congress to come up with a bill on background checks, and keeping guns out of the hands of people with mental health problems.  To the consternation of many, Trump continued to propose armed guards inside schools.  He stated support for concealed carry but pushed back on Republican Whip Steve Scalise’s suggestion that concealed carry between states be added to the bill, because that would scuttle chances for the getting the other progress through Congress.  Time will tell how serious he is about supporting this initiative.

If nothing else, the corporate world is beginning to believe that sensible restraint is good business.  On the same day as the televised White House meeting, Walmart announced it would stop selling guns and ammunition those under 21.  Dick’s Sporting Goods will also stop selling guns to buyers under 21 and anything with a high capacity magazine. 

The Latest on the Dreamers

The Supreme Court decided on February 26 to reject the administration’s request for immediate review of the case filed by DACA recipients and institutions ... including the University of California in California District Court where the Judge had ruled against the administration.  A New York Federal Judge issued a similar ruling.  This means it is unlikely that the case will continue through the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals and likely would not reach the Supreme Court at least until the fall, meaning that deportation proceedings for 690,000 DACA recipients will be unable to start on March 5 as the President’s DACA action had originally ordered.

Prospects for Taking Back the House

Polls are continuing to show that Democrats have a good shot at taking back the House in 2018, with Democrats now holding a 16-point lead on a generic congressional ballot according to a CNN poll taken last month. An early test of strength in 2018 is coming up March 13 to fill the Pennsylvania 18th district seat, open after the resignation of Republican Tim Murphy following a scandal.  Republican candidate Rick Saccone is facing off against Democratic Conor Lamb in a district Trump carried by 20 points.  Today the race is within 3 points.

California Democratic Convention

The California Democratic Convention was held in San Diego last weekend and turned out to be a lively affair, filled with opportunities to hear candidates for state and national offices.  In an attempt to woo delegates, the candidates spoke in the main hall, at the caucuses, at hosted events, and wherever else they could to get across their message. On Saturday afternoon, the delegates voted with a mandatory 60% threshold to endorse candidates.  

It turned out that too many candidates were running against each other, splitting the vote.  The result was no endorsement for the US Senate seat, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.  Incumbent US Senator Diane Feinstein was outpolled by California Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon 37% to 54%.  In the Governor’s race, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom received 39% of the votes, followed by 30% for Treasurer John Chiang, 20% for former Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, and a dismal 9% for former Los Angeles Major Antonio Villagarosa.  Incumbent State Controller Betty Yee, Secretary of State Alex Padilla, as well as Board of Equalization Chairman Ma for Treasurer, and ASM Tony Thurman for State Superintendent of Public Instruction were successful in the endorsement race.

Club Events

Please do not forget that our spring Ready-to-Run fundraiser will be held on March 10th at the Studio Channel Islands, 2222 Ventura Boulevard, Camarillo, at 3 - 6 pm.  I hope you will all purchase tickets to meet and hear from candidates, as well as support our Club.  I also want to mention that we will be holding our May Pizza fundraiser for our scholarship fund on Thursday, May 3rd.

Our speaker tonight is CFROG (Citizens for Responsible Oil and Gas) Executive Director Kimberly Rivers.  She will be updating us on developments in Ventura County.  I look forward to seeing you all there.

The State of the Union Speech

​The State of the Union speech punctuated the end of the Trump Administration’s first year.  The President called for unity, but pushed a Republican agenda which Republicans predictably cheered, while leaving Democrats in the chamber looking distinctly unenthusiastic.  He unsurprisingly touted economic and job growth (trends which were well underway during the Obama Administration), the Republican tax cut claiming that members of the middle class would be better off, and the historical highs of the stock market which has gained $8 trillion in value during the last year.   Yet we know that 84% of stocks are owned by 10% of the population, inequality is growing in U.S. society, and that the overwhelming majority of the benefits of the new tax bill go to the top one percent and corporations.  The tax overhaul will drive up the deficit by $1.7 trillion, and will raise taxes on many middle class families by the end of the decade.  Moreover, those families whose healthcare costs are increasing will be additionally squeezed.  When it came to immigration reform, the President talked of a path to citizenship for Dreamers over a 12-year period, while none-too-subtly linking immigrants to gangs like MS-13 and crime.  

Congressman Joe Kennedy III was eloquent and animated in giving the Democratic response.  He spoke to unity, inclusion, diversity and the Democratic “better deal” agenda of good paying jobs, paid family leave, and affordable medical care.  He spoke at a vocational technical high school before a live audience in Fall River, Massachusetts, a former mill town setting designed to show Democrats in touch with real people.

Continuing Chaos in Washington

In the lead-up to the State of the Union speech, we have been through another chaotic month in Washington entwined in shut-down politics.  Notwithstanding that the Republicans control both houses of Congress and the executive branch, they have been unable to manage to run a budget process smoothly.  With 700,000 dreamers and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) for 9 million children hanging in the balance, on January 19, the Administration and the Congress found its way through the third continuing resolution/shutdown crisis since December 8th.  It had appeared a Senate deal on DACA had been struck that the President hinted he would support, but subsequently backed away from in a cloud of expletive-deleted words which gratuitously denigrated a number of countries from which immigrants come.  Democrats voted to join the Republicans in reopening government and Congress passed a fourth continuing resolution until February 8, and concurrently agreed to six years of authorization for CHIP.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed to a clean vote on DACA, but $31 billion in tax cuts related to the Affordable Care Act were also part of the deal.  But this only achieved three more weeks of continuing resolution funding ... so on February 8, we could see the continuing resolution/shutdown playout again. 
 
In the background the Mueller probe continued to loom throughout the month.  FBI Deputy Director McCabe left office precipitously, and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Nunes (CA-25) has once again thrown the Committee into bipartisan divide by moving to release a confidential memo drafted by Republican staff about FBI surveillance practices over the “grave concerns” of the FBI and all Democrats on the Committee.

Upcoming Elections Looking Good for Democrats

We Democrats will be working hard around the country to win the 24 seats needed to gain control of the House, and recent polls indicate that goal could be in reach.  Eight GOP House Committee Chairs, and a total of 23 House Republicans have now announced they will not run again.  Close to home, two of the most endangered Republicans in the California Congressional delegation have announced they will not run again.  Thirteen-term Orange County representative Ed Royce and nine-term representative Darryl Issa have both decided against running in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. 

Upcoming State and County Events

We are all looking forward to the California Democratic Party Convention being held on February 23-25 in San Diego, as an opportunity to meet with our Democratic colleagues across the state, exchange ideas, and be inspired by our leaders as we gear up for the 2018 election.  The Ventura County Democratic Party Central Committee will be opening an office in the UCFW Orchid Building (where we have our DCC meetings), and I know they will welcome volunteers from our club to help staff that office.

Club Events including our Ready-to-Run Fundraiser

Our club is looking forward to holding our Ready-to-Run fundraising event on March 10 at the Channel Islands Art Studio from 1-5 pm.  I hope we will get a good group of local and statewide candidates to attend, and that many of you will also be able to support the event and attend.
I look forward to seeing you all this coming Thursday, when we will hear from Dr. Yongping Chen, PhD, Lac, and Dr. Kristofer Young, DC, about the role that Chinese medicine and functional medicine can play in the U.S. medical system.